- GLP-1 drugs show seasonal demand, peaking in early months and slowing later in the year.
- Eli Lilly’s earnings misses may be partly due to this pattern, not declining demand.
- Investor expectations must factor in seasonality when evaluating sales trends.
Seasonal Trends in GLP-1 Demand
- Unlike chronic disease treatments, GLP-1 drugs behave more like gym memberships, with higher demand in the first half of the year.
- People set weight-loss resolutions in January, leading to spikes in prescriptions for Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound.
- New patient sign-ups slow in the second half, similar to fitness trends where gym memberships surge early and drop later.
- Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat found this trend dating back to 2016, indicating a consistent pattern.
Implications for Eli Lilly’s Growth
- Eli Lilly missed earnings projections twice in a row due to lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales.
- The stock dropped after these earnings reports, confusing investors who expected steady growth.
- If seasonality explains part of the decline, it means demand remains strong, just cyclical.
- Projections suggest Mounjaro and Zepbound could reach $25 billion in sales in 2025, pushing total revenue beyond $62 billion.
- This would put Eli Lilly’s revenue at the upper end of its $58B-$61B forecast.
Beyond Seasonality: Barriers to GLP-1 Access
- Unlike gym memberships, obtaining GLP-1 drugs is complicated:
- Insurance restrictions and high costs limit access.
- Employer reluctance to cover expensive weight-loss drugs is a major barrier.
- List prices exceed $1,000 per month, making out-of-pocket costs unaffordable for many.
- Only half of large employers cover GLP-1 medications, and smaller businesses rarely do.
What’s Next?
- Eli Lilly might see a strong rebound in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, but should temper expectations.
- If the company raises revenue forecasts too aggressively, it risks another earnings miss later in the year.
- Investors should factor in seasonality when evaluating sales trends, as GLP-1 usage may follow annual weight-loss cycles.
🔹 Bottom Line: The GLP-1 market isn’t slowing—it’s seasonal. Drugmakers and investors must adjust expectations accordingly.