Obesity Trends Show First Signs of Decline in Over a Decade: Impact of GLP-1 Medications and Regional Shifts

 

• Obesity prevalence among US adults shows signs of declining for the first time in over a decade.

• A study analyzing trends in BMI found that mean BMI increased annually from 2013 to 2021, plateaued in 2022, and decreased slightly in 2023.

• Researchers attribute these shifts partially to the rising use of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) for weight loss.

• Other factors, such as demographic and behavioral changes from the COVID-19 pandemic, may also play a role.

• The study analyzed data from 16.7 million US adults aged 26 to 75, using deidentified medical and insurance records.

• The South saw the largest drop in BMI, with obesity rates declining from 46.2% in 2021 to 45.6% in 2023.

• The South also had the highest rate of GLP-1RA prescribing per capita at 6%, compared to 5.1% in the Midwest, 4.4% in the Northeast, and 3.4% in the West.

• Researchers caution that GLP-1RA dispensing doesn’t guarantee uptake, and the South had high COVID-19 mortality among individuals with obesity.

• Obesity and BMI are imperfect measures of body fat, and future studies should use alternative body composition metrics.

• The study's findings contrast with NHANES data from 2024, which showed only a nonsignificant decline in obesity prevalence from 2021 to 2023.

• Despite these trends, there is an increase in severe obesity (BMI > 40) over the past 10 years in the US.

• The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study reports that over 170 million US adults are overweight or obese, with rates exceeding 40% in all states and Washington, DC.

• Experts emphasize that while GLP-1RAs improve weight loss and cardiovascular outcomes, they cannot address institutional, environmental, and societal factors contributing to obesity.

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Key Takeaways

• BMI trends show a possible reversal in the obesity epidemic, with the first decline in over a decade.

• The South leads in both BMI reduction and GLP-1RA prescribing rates.

• GLP-1RAs are effective but limited in addressing broader societal contributors to obesity.

• Future studies should explore alternative measures and continue monitoring severe obesity trends.

• The impact of GLP-1RAs on epidemiological trends will likely take years to materialize.

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